An ex-convict, Heart’s lover…

…and FPJ’s daughter are among the top five in the presidential race

By Julius D. Mariveles

AN EX-PRESIDENT convicted of plunder, a vice-president accused of corruption, the solon-daughter of an action star, a politician engaged to a movie star, and a senator known for her pick-up lines – what do they have in common?

They are among the top five probable presidential candidates according to the November 2014 Ulat ng Bayan survey conducted by the reputable pollster Pulse Asia on the May 2016 polls.

Vice-President Jejomar Binay continues to lead in the presidential race with 26 percent of the 1,200 respondents saying that they would vote for him if the May 2016 elections were held during the survey period. Senator Grace Poe, daughter of action king and defeated presidential candidate Fernando Poe, Jr. came in after Binay with 18 percent.

ON TOP OF THE HEAP. The top five probable presidential candidates according to the Pulse Asia Ulat Ng Bayan November 2014 survey | Graphics by Julius D. Mariveles

Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago, who was made more famous recently by her pick-up lines, got 12 percent while former President Joseph Estrada and Senator Francis Escudero came in fourth and fifth places with 10 percent and seven percent, respectively.

Santiago ran but lost in 1992 against former Armed Forces chief of staff Fidel Ramos who won the elections. She accused the former general of massive cheating. Estrada, on the other hand, was convicted of plunder while Escudero grabbed the headlines recently with his engagement to screen idol Heart Evangelista.

Interior Sec. Manuel Roxas II was in the second five with Senators Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. and Alan Peter Cayetano, rehabilitzation czar and former Sen. Panfilo Lacson, and Senate President Franklin Drilon. Also making it to the list of 14 probable presidential candidates were Sen. Ramon Revilla, Jr., former Defense Sec. Gilbert Teodoro, former Sen. Richard Gordon, and House Speaker Feliciano Belmonte, Jr.

Senator Grace Poe is the top vice-presidential bet for the May 2016 elections with 33 percent or one in three Filipinos saying they would vote for him. Escudero came in second with 20 percent while Cayetano was third at 13 percent. The other names who came up during the survey were those of Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, Drilon, Marcos, Estrada, Revilla, Representatives Leni Robredo, and Sherwin Gatchalian.

Of the 59 individuals in the senatorial electoral probe, Pulse Asia reported that 14 have a “statistical chance” of winning in the May 2016 elections if it were held during the survey period. All of them are either incumbent or former government officials.

Sharing the top spot are Senator Vicente C. Sotto III (54.7 percent) and Presidenital Assistant for Rehabilitation and Recovery Panfilo Lacson (52.9 percent). Both have a statistical ranking of first to third place. They are followed by Presidential Assistant for Food Security and Agricultural Modernization Francis N. Pangilinan (49.2 percent), who occupies 1st to 6th places.

Three probable bets are in third to eight places – former Senator Juan Miguel F. Zubiri (45.5 percent), Senator Ralph G. Recto (45.1 percent), and Senate President Franlin Drilon (44.9 percent). Former Senator Richard Gordon, on the other hand, is in fourth to ninth places with a rating of 42.9 percent and nearby is Senator Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.

The other probable winners are: Senator Sergio R. Osmeña (37.8 percent, 7th to 12th places), former Akbayan party-list Rep. Risa Hontiveros (35.4 percent, 8th to 14th places), former Sen. Jamby Madrigal (34.9 percent, ninth to 14th places), Department of Justice Sec. Leila M. de Lima (33.8 percent, ninth to 14th places), Senator Teofisto Guingona III (31.8 percent, 10th to 15th places), and Taguig City Rep. Lino Edgardo S. Cayetano (31.3 percent, 10th to 15th places).

Pulse Asia said in its media release that the survey field work was conducted from November 14 to 20, 2014 using face-to-face interviews with 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above. The survey has a margin of error of plus / minus three percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

Among the issues that dominated the headlines during the conduct of the survey were:

the continuing investigation of the Senate on the alleged corruption against Vice-President Binay;
the cancellation of a debate between Binay and Trillanes on the alleged anomalies involving Binay;
the Senate probe into the reported overpricing of the Iloilo Convention Center involving Drilon;
the participation of President Aquino in the leaders meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference;
global efforts to stop the spread of the Ebola virus; and
the commemoration of All Saints’ Day and All Souls’ Day and the first year of Typhoon Yolanda, among others.