‘Invisible hand’ in Namfrel manipulated results
of its 2004 presidential tally — Verzola

Obet Verzola first made his findings public just over a month after the May 2004 elections. The Inquirer published a shorter version of his study on June 20 last year.

His earlier study was hobbled by the refusal of NAMFREL officials to release to the public their breakdown of precincts reported by province. Given this limitation, it proved diificult to appreciate how the tally was proceeding — whether evenly in each candidate’s bailiwick or whether certain bailiwicks were contributing a disproportionate share to the national totals.

It was Verzola’s belief that the release of this breakdown will afford any analyst “a very good ER-based estimate of the true results of the 2004 presidential elections, independent of the COC-based Congress canvass.”

may technicality ……

How many tape recorders and players does isafp have ?

PCIJ People and PCIJ Bloggers just to give you a heads up, i found some interesting ‘artifacts’ on the three hour tape file specially on the file where the yung dagdag conversation is heard and some other interesting clues on the different versions of the Garci tapes. These artifacts does not mean an anomaly but merely tells certain clues if the tapes are the original or a duplicate or if there are multiple tape recorders and players that produced these. I am not questioning PCIJ’s take on the tapes because the analysis are mostly on the content and are valid. The question is if the three hour tape is the really the original.

– ARTIFACT A –

If you listen deeply on the three hour tape specifically on the yung dagdag conversation, you will hear fluctuations
on the overall audio volume withe a regular interval of 9 seconds. I call this the ‘9 second tape slip’. I think its a phenomenon where the magnetic tape slips back and forth on top of the recording/playback head due to a loose or mis-aligned tape guide rollers. Either tape casette or the player/recorder is defective. It is possible that a specific combination of a recorder/player and a tape could produce a specific artifact because the the cause is purely mechanical.

The same fluctations are also found on the conversations and ISAFP introductions found before the yung dagdag.

– ARTIFACT B –

Starting from the 2nd conversation counting from the yung dagdag conversation , volume fluctation intervals is also evident. This time the fluctuation is every three seconds considering we are still lookingl on the same three hour tape file. PCIJ should do a spectrographic view on the rest of the file to confirm my observation.

– ARTIFACT C –

There are no volume fluctuations heard on the other parts of the three hour tape conversations. Overall volume is constant.

– ARTIFACT D –

Paguia’s yung dagdag tape does not contain any volume fluctuations

– ARTIFACT E –

PCIJ’s Bunye version of the yung dagdag does not contain any volume fluctations

– ARTIFACT F –

PCIJ’s Lacson Copy of the yung dagdag also does not contain volume fluctations.

– ARTFACT G –

PCIJ mentioned in one of the articles here that the word ‘NAMFREL’ was removed from Bunye’s yung dagdag. PCIJ’s Lacson copy of the yung dagdag with the NAMFREL was also removed.

– ARTIFACT H –

Traces of repeating audio data at the quiet part of the recording can be heard at the end of of some of the conversations. Its a clue that the medium is a magnetic tape. This is a phenomenon on magnetic tapes where the tapes are stacked on a tape reel spool causing the magnetic information to be transferred from one layer of the tape reel to a layer above or below it.

my comments,

1. Artifacts A and B may have come from two different tapes played on a defective player Artifact C could be a third possible source tape.

2. ARTIFACTS A,B,C volume fluctations cut across the iSAFP introduction and the conversation after it. There are no ARTIFACT transitions within an ISAFP introduction and within a conversation ARTIFACT transitions are only evident between conversation compilations.

3. ARTIFACTS A and B are present side by side on the supposed to be a single reel three hour tape. A to B transition is noted between the 2nd and 3rd conversation counting from the yung dagdag conversation

Possible cause:

3.1 Multiple tape source were used to produce the three hour long tape.
3.2 The source tape could have been replaced a couple of times while the three hour tape is being produced.
3.3 The player could have been replaced sometime while the three hour tape is being recorded and compiled to another tape.

No matter how you look at it, the three hour tape version is i think not an original copy but a compiled copy of different tapes due to the varying ARTIFACTS.

4. ARTIFACT H indicate that the source tape is a magnetic tape.

5. ARTIFACT D possibly shows that the paguia tape is not from the three hour tape.

6. ARTIFACT E possibly shows that the bunye tape is not from the three hour tape

7. ARTIFACT F possibly shows that the Lacson tape is not from the three hour tape

8. ARTIFACT G is a puzzle to me.

9. How did bunye got hold of the copy if the original is with ong?

If my recollection serves me right, it was the IT expert GUS LAGMAN, who led the fight on the NAMFREL side against the Automated Counting System of Comelec. In fact, I believe he was involved in the suit at the Supreme Court in December 2003, because he was part of the losing bid(?), and was a plaintiff or representing them

[…] Verzola has recently spearheaded the forming of the group Halalang Marangal (or the Network of Citizens for Honest Elections and Truthful Statistics). He says they intend to do a citizens’ audit of the elections in 2007 because the elections watchdog National Citizens’ Movement for Free Elections (Namfrel) cannot be relied upon anymore to make an honest tally. (See also Verzola’s studies on the extent of cheating in the 2004 presidential elections here and here.) […]

[…] Namfrel’s key officials have also been linked to the allegations of massive poll fraud that marred the 2004 elections. […]

[…] Verzola also analyzed the regional and provincial tallies of the National Citizens’ Movement for Free Elections (Namfrel) in 2004. Then, he concluded that an “invisible hand” within Namfrel’s national tabulation center manipulated the results of its tally. […]